Thursday, March 8, 2007

So the people of Brazil don't want an "Ethanol OPEC"? And you're buying that???




So much to say, so little motivation to say it. So I'll just play a simple game of connect the dots.

1. Bush visits Brazil and is greeted by a few small protests, well actually not "greeted" as they were cleared away prior to his arrival. In Brazil they can usually get 20,000 people to protest various minor inconveniences such as no electricity or jobs. A blown call at a soccer match can get 35,000 to 50,000 people.

2. The people are not protesting the war or American imperialism (funny how even Brazilians know these are false issues created by propagandists) but rather what they perceive as Brazil and the US starting an ethanol "OPEC" type cartel.

3. Upon seeing his attempts as fomenting a virtual revolution in Brazil failed Chavez hops into his jet to spread his anti-Bush agenda ahead of Bush's trips to those countries.

Why you ask would Chavez stir the pot in Brazil against an ethanol agreement between the US and Brazil? What is Venezuela's biggest export and almost sole sustaining factor of their economy? Crude oil exports.

If the US, Brazil (soon to be joined by Canada and Mexico) form a cartel for selling and manufacturing ethanol they will not only be in a position to control the price of the commodity, but of their own economies. Right now Venezuela sells the bulk of it's crude to the US. Any move that facilitates the US, Canada and Mexico finding an alternative to crude, or at least in the quantities it is currently exported spells trouble for Venezuela.

How would Brazil benefit from this arrangement? It costs them 17 cents a gallon to produce one gallon of ethanol. It costs the US about 5 times that price. If the US and other countries can form a coalition to sell this bio-fuel to Europe and Asia they will be in a position to maximize their prices. If they deal individually with each purchaser they will have to negotiate prices and be in competition with other producers, undercutting prices.

How would the US benefit from this? It guarantees prices for imported ethanol. It prevents European buyers from starting a price war by out bidding the US for their import needs. As the success of the program is seen in other countries they will look at planting crops to be used for bio-fuels. The ones that do will see their economies improve with the help of the US, improving US-Latin relations.

So now that we see it is not the Brazilians who are against the ethanol cartel but rather Hugo Chavez. We'll examine that angle later.

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