Thursday, April 17, 2008

Why Obama will get the nomination

(originally posted April 17, 2008)
Stick the fork in Hillary... she's done.If Obama gets the nomination her somewhat more moderate supporters won't vote for B. Hussein, they will vote McCain. In that case McCain wins but the more important Congressional election results will likely go unchanged, he won't have long coat tails crossing party lines.If the super-delegates back her over Obama his ultraleft and black supporters won't vote. This will effect many House and Senate races, and remember 22 GOP Senate seats are up for grabs and 12 Democrat seats that may go GOP due to low Democrat voter turnout.The DNC knows this and has seen it for months, that is why Richardson, a Clinton loyalist, and other high profile party members are putting their backing behind Obama. B. Hussein may lose but he'll help the DNC win congress big time. Nominating Hillary will lose the White House, Senate and House of Reps., the DNC just got back in power, they don't want to lose it after two years.

Last night's debate showed a stronger Hillary than we have seen, and Obama was off his game. But although ABC is patting themselves on the back for "asking the tough questions" those questions were largely left unanswered with both Hillary and Obama talking around them. Only once did a moderator force an answer, Stephanopolis dogged Hillary until she finally said that Obama is electable. She doesn't believe so, and is right, but to say otherwise would cost her any hope of getting the nomination as the super-delegates would all go Obama.

Unless Hillary wins Pennsylvania by such a huge margin she pulls ahead in the total vote count she will be pressured to step down. A close race will have super-delegates coming off the fence for Obama a few a day until he goes ahead in pledged delegates or she concedes. The last thing the party wants is a longer period of in-fighting. McCain is making inroads with independents, undecideds, and moderate Democrats, time is dwindling to win them back.

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